Revisiting The Epizootic of 1872

Harper's Weekly Nov 1872 - Managing without Horses

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While it may seem that our present circumstances - where a virulent and deadly (primarily to birds) avian influenza virus has spread across the nation, spilling over into cats, dogs, livestock, and even humans  - is unprecedented, just over 150 years ago North America was embroiled in a similar event; the Epizootic of 1872. 

All of this occurred decades before the influenza virus was identified, and viable samples of the 1872 virus have never been found or analyzed, but there is fairly convincing evidence that an early avian influenza virus (subtype unknown) was involved. 

In 2010 the NIH tag team flu experts David Morens and Jeffrey K. Taubenberger penned a fascinating account of the 1872 equine epizootic - an epidemic in horses that spread from Canada to Mexico in a matter of months - and brought transportation to a standstill in this country (see A New Look At The Panzootic Of 1872). 

Morens and Taubenberger (2010) An avian outbreak associated with panzootic equine influenza in 1872: an early example of highly pathogenic avian influenza? Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 4(6), 373–377.

This report provides a tantalizing review of anecdotal reports of a concurrent epizootic affecting poultry, and even causing human illness across the nation.
 
They wrote:

An explosive fatal epizootic in poultry, prairie chickens, turkeys, ducks, and geese occurred over much of the populated United States between November 15 and December 15, 1872. The epizootic progressed in temporal-geographic association with a well-reported panzootic of equine influenza, which had begun in or around Markham, Ontario, during the last few days of September 1872,1–4 at a time when human influenza had not been recently prevalent.

The equine epizootic spread rapidly into the United States along railroad lines, with separate simultaneous introductions into Michigan and upper New York State. It quickly spread over the entire United States to the Caribbean and Central America (Figure 1).

Horses, mules, and menagerie/circus zebras were involved, with “spill over” infections into dogs and cats.4

Numerous individual human cases and localized outbreaks throughout the United States, often associated with exposures to ill horses, were reported. The human disease, generally mild and uncomplicated, was popularly referred to as the “epizooty”, or “zooty”.4

Whether this was an avian flu that jumped to horses, or an equine flu that spilled over into poultry - or two separate events - may never be known.  But Taubenberger and Morens wrote in their conclusion:

Another microbial agent could have caused the avian outbreak; however, its strong temporal and geographic association with the equine panzootic, and its clinical and epidemiologic features, are most consistent with highly pathogenic avian influenza. The avian epizootic could thus have been an early instance of highly pathogenic avian influenza.

Taubenberger and Morens also noted anecdotal reports of similar illnesses in wild deer, and in pigs with exposure to stables with sick horses, although it is impossible to know whether the same virus was to blame. 

Although the disease was rarely fatal in horses (1%-10%), it could be debilitating for weeks, and it sparked a nationwide transportation crisis at a time when `horse power' really referred to horses.   

In November of 1872, during the height of the crisis in Boston, horse drawn fire engines were unable to quickly respond to a fire which began in the basement of a warehouse, and quickly spread, leading to the loss of hundreds of buildings (see the Dakota Digital Review The Great Boston Fire & Epizootic of 1872 in a matter of hours. 

It is estimated 75% of the horses in North America were affected, leaving horse-drawn cable cars in San Francisco out of service, farmers unable to transport their harvests to market, the mail undelivered, and factories unable to ship or receive parts. 

Newspapers tried to make light of the situation, coming up with disease names like `henfluenza' and `chickizooty', while the Pennsylvania Dutch dubbed it Pferdhühnkrankheit (“horse‐chicken‐disease”).

But as the disease spread from coast-to-coast (following the railroad lines) its economic impact was severe (see the Historical Society of Ottawa's account: The Great Epizootic). 

And while seemingly related human flu infections that winter were characterized as `mild', major influenza epidemics were reported in both 1873 and 1874. Whether they were related to the virus of 1872 is unknown. 

There have been other `equine influenza' outbreaks over the years, without apparent spillover into other species, giving credence to the idea that this event was an outlier, and likely due to an avian influenza virus. 

Although it is assumed that the epizootic of 1872 spared cows and cattle, it is possible they were asymptomatically infected.

As we've discussed previously (see A Brief History Of Influenza A In Cattle/Ruminants), there is at least one mention in the literature of influenza in cattle going back to the late 1800s in Japan.

While there are certainly differences between the epizootic of 1872 and the epizootic of today, both suggest that  novel influenza viruses can have an unexpectedly wide host range, including:

• Poultry and wild birds 
• Livestock (horses, goats, pigs, and cattle)
• Wildlife (foxes, skunks, deer, marine mammals, etc.)
• Humans

Although we can't use the epizootic of 1872 to predict what will happen with our current crisis, it does tell us that novel flu viruses have a long history of exceeding our expectations, and that they can impact our health, our economy, and our society in unexpected ways. 

We underestimate them at our own considerable peril. 

Preprint: Virome Sequencing Identifies H5N1 Avian Influenza in Wastewater from Nine (Texas) Cities.

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While we don't have any evidence of an ongoing spillover of H5N1 to humans in the United States, we have preprint (published yesterday) which documents the recent detection of H5N1 in wastewater collected from 9 (unnamed) Texas cities.  

The first detections of H5N1 appeared in March (see chart above) and by April their rate exceeded that of seasonal influenza viruses. 

The origins of these viruses are still thought to be primarily from avian or bovine sources, but some contributions from humans cannot be excluded.  

I've posted the abstract and some brief excerpts below.  Follow the link to read it in its entirety. 

Virome Sequencing Identifies H5N1 Avian Influenza in Wastewater from Nine Cities
Michael J Tisza, Blake Hanson, Justin Ryan Clark, Li Wang, Katelyn Payne, Matthew C Ross, Kristina D Mena, Anna Gitter, Sara Joan Javornik Cregeen, Juwan J Cormier, Vasanthi J Avadhanula, Austen L Terwilliger, John E Balliew, Fuqing Wu, Janelle Rios, Jennifer Deegan, Pedro Piedra, Joseph F Petrosino, Eric Boerwinkle, Anthony W. Maresso
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.05.10.24307179

Preview PDF

Abstract

Avian influenza (serotype H5N1) is a highly pathogenic virus that emerged in domestic waterfowl in 1996. Over the past decade, zoonotic transmission to mammals, including humans, has been reported. Although human to human transmission is rare, infection has been fatal in nearly half of patients who have contracted the virus in past outbreaks. The increasing presence of the virus in domesticated animals raises substantial concerns that viral adaptation to immunologically naive humans may result in the next flu pandemic.

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) to track viruses was historically used to track polio and has recently been implemented for SARS-CoV2 monitoring during the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, using an agnostic, hybrid-capture sequencing approach, we report the detection of H5N1 in wastewater in nine Texas cities, with a total catchment area population in the millions, over a two-month period from March 4th to April 25th, 2024. 

Sequencing reads uniquely aligning to H5N1 covered all eight genome segments, with best alignments to clade 2.3.4.4b. Notably, 19 of 23 monitored sites had at least one detection event, and the H5N1 serotype became dominant over seasonal influenza over time. A variant analysis suggests avian or bovine origin but other potential sources, especially humans, could not be excluded. We report the value of wastewater sequencing to track avian influenza.

(SNIP)

In conclusion, we report the widespread detection of Influenza A H5N1 virus in wastewater from nine U.S. cities during the spring of 2024. Although the exact cause of the signal is currently unknown, lack of clinical burden along with genomic information suggests avian or bovine origin. 

Given the now widespread presence of the virus in dairy cows, the concerning findings that unpasteurized milk may contain live virus, and that these two recent factors will increase the number of viral interactions with our species, wastewater monitoring should be readily considered as a sentinel surveillance tool that augments and accelerates our detection of evolutionary adaptations of significant concern.

          (Continue . . . )

More CMEs On the Way - G5 Conditions Reached On Several Occasions

#18,056

Although I haven't seen any reports of large-scale impacts, for several hours this morning I had technical difficulties with Google Blogger, and there are reports of sporadic network outages and glitches around the world.  

While (severe) G4 level geomagnetic storms were forecast by NOAA, on at least 3 occasions (see chart below) overnight G5 (extreme levels) were reached. 

Two more X-class flares have been recorded over the past 12 hours, and while the active region (3664) is approaching the limb of the sun, some part of those CMEs appear to be earth directed.   

Additional flares are possible, and while this sunspot group will soon depart the earth-facing side of the sun, eruptions over the next day or two could still be geo-effective.  In the meantime, we still have 4 or 5 CMEs on the way, and another 24-48 hours of strong-to-severe space weather ahead. 

USDA & HHS Announce New Actions To Reduce The Spread of HPAI H5N1

#18,055

While officially HPAI H5 only represents a `low risk' to the American public, the government has allocated roughly $200 million dollars across multiple federal agencies (USDA, HHS, CDC, FDA) to tackle this threat. 

The following statement was released by the USDA yesterday. 

USDA, HHS Announce New Actions to Reduce Impact and Spread of H5N1

Release & Contact Info
Fact Sheet
Release No. 0082.24

Contact: USDA/HHS
Email: press@usda.gov
media@hhs.gov


On March 25, 2024, immediately following the first detection of H5N1 in dairy cattle in the Texas panhandle region, USDA and HHS began their work to understand the origin of the emergence and its potential impact in bovines and humans. USDA experts also took swift action to trace animal movements, began sampling to assess the disease prevalence in herds, and initiated a variety of testing activities to confirm the safety of the meat and milk supplies alongside federal partners. On April 1, 2024, Texas reported the first and only confirmed human H5N1 infection associated with this outbreak, after confirmation by CDC. On April 24, 2024, USDA issued a Federal Order, that took effect on April 29, to limit the movement of lactating dairy cattle and to collect and aggregate H5N1 test results to better understand the nature of the outbreak.

Since the detection of H5N1 in dairy cattle, the Federal response has leveraged the latest available scientific data, field epidemiology, and risk assessments to mitigate risks to workers and the general public, to ensure the safety of America’s food supply and to mitigate risk to livestock, owners, and producers. Today, USDA is taking a series of additional steps to help achieve these goals and reduce the impact of H5N1 on affected premises and producers, and HHS is announcing new actions through the CDC and FDA to increase testing and laboratory screening and testing capacity, genomic sequencing, and other interventions to protect the health and safety of dairy and other potentially impacted food items.

USDA

Today, USDA is announcing assistance for producers with H5N1 affected premises to improve on-site biosecurity in order to reduce the spread. In addition, USDA is taking steps to make available financial tools for lost milk production in herds affected by H5N1. Building on the Federal Order addressing pre-movement testing, these steps will further equip producers with tools they can use to keep their affected herds and workers healthy and reduce risk of the virus spreading to additional herds.

Protect against the potential for spread between human and animals. Provide financial support (up to $2,000 per affected premises per month) for producers who supply PPE to employees and/or provide outerwear uniform laundering, for producers of affected herds who facilitate the participation of their workers in USDA/CDC workplace and farmworker study.

Complementary to USDA’s new financial support for producers, workers who participate in the study are also eligible for financial incentives to compensate them for their time, regardless of whether the study is led by federal, state, or local public health professionals.

Support producers in biosecurity planning and implementation. Provide support (up to $1,500 per affected premises) to develop biosecurity plans based on existing secure milk supply plans. This includes recommended enhanced biosecurity for individuals that frequently move between dairy farms – milk haulers, veterinarians, feed trucks, AI technicians, etc. In addition, USDA will provide a $100 payment to producers who purchase and use an in-line sampler for their milk system.

Provide funding for heat treatment to dispose of milk in a bio secure fashion. This will provide producers a safe option for disposal of milk. Heat treatment performed in accordance with standards set by FDA is the only currently available method considered to effectively inactivate the virus in milk. If a producer establishes a system to heat treat all waste milk before disposal, USDA will pay the producer up to $2,000 per affected premises per month.

Reimburse producers for veterinarian costs associated with confirmed positive H5N1 premises. This provides support to producers to cover veterinary costs necessarily incurred for treating cattle infected with H5N1, as well as fees for veterinarians to collect samples for testing. This can include veterinary fees and/or specific supplies needed for treatment and sample collection. Veterinary costs are eligible to be covered from the initial date of positive confirmation at NVSL for that farm, up to $10,000 per affected premises.

Offset shipping costs for influenza A testing at laboratories in the National Animal Health Laboratory Network (NAHLN). USDA will pay for the cost of shipping samples to NAHLN labs for testing. USDA will pay actual shipping costs, not to exceed $50 per shipment for up to 2 shipments per month for each affected premises. Testing at NAHLN laboratories for samples associated with this event (e.g., pre-movement, testing of sick/suspect animals, samples from concerned producers) is already being conducted at no-cost to the producer.

Taken together, these tools represent a value of up to $28,000 per premises to support increased biosecurity activities over the next 120 days.

Compensate producers for loss of milk production. USDA is taking steps to make funding available from the Emergency Assistance for Livestock, Honey Bees, and Farm-raised Fish Program (ELAP) to compensate eligible producers with positive herds who experience loss of milk production. While dairy cows that have been infected with H5N1 generally recover well, and there is little mortality associated with the disease, it does dramatically limit milk production, causing economic losses for producers with affected premises. USDA can support farmers with the ELAP program to offset some of these losses. This compensation program is distinct from the strategy to contain the spread.

Work with states to limit movement of lactating cattle. Additionally, USDA will work with and support the actions of States with affected herds as they consider movement restrictions within their borders to further limit the spread of H5N1 between herds to reduce further spread of this virus.

USDA will make $98 million in existing funds available to APHIS to fund these initiatives. If needed, USDA has the authority, with Congressional notification, to make additional funds available.

These additional measures build on a suite of actions USDA has taken to date. This includes implementation of the Federal Order to limit spread of the disease, coordinating with federal partners to share expertise and lab capacity, doubling down on our work with producers to practice good biosecurity measures, continuing to conduct investigations to determine how the virus is spread within and between farms, and analyzing and sharing sequences alongside validated epidemiological information.

The U.S. government is addressing this situation with urgency and through a whole-of- government approach. USDA is working closely with federal partners at FDA, which has the primary responsibility for the safety of milk and dairy products, by assisting with conducting lab testing at USDA labs. USDA is also working closely with federal partners at CDC, which has the primary responsibility for public health, by encouraging producer and industry cooperation with public health officials to get vital information necessary to assess the level of risk to human health.

Additional details on how producers can access and apply for the financial tools is forthcoming.

HHS

Today, HHS announced new funding investments through CDC and FDA totaling $101 million to mitigate the risk of H5N1 and continue its work to test, prevent, and treat H5N1. Although the CDC’s assessment of the risk of avian influenza infection for the general public continues to remain low at this time, these investments reflect the Department’s commitment to prioritizing the health and safety of the American public.

Public and animal health experts and agencies have been preparing for avian influenza outbreak for 20 years. Our primary responsibility at HHS is to protect public health and the safety of the food supply, which is why we continue to approach the outbreak with urgency. We stood up a response team which includes four HHS agencies – CDC, FDA, NIH and ASPR – which are working closely with USDA to: 

• Ensure we keep communities healthy, safe, and informed;
• Ensure that our Nation’s food supply remains safe;
• Safeguard American agriculture and the livelihood and well-being of American farmers and farmworkers; and
• Monitor any and all trends to mitigate risk and prevent the spread of H5N1 among both people and animals.

Some examples of this work include: 

• CDC monitoring of the virus to detect any changes that may increase risk to people, and updated avian flu guidance for workers to ensure people who work with dairy cows and those who work in slaughterhouses have the guides and information they need in both English and Spanish.
• CDC's ongoing discussions with multiple states about field investigations and incentives for workers who participate in these on-site studies. CDC has also asked health departments to distribute existing PPE stocks to farm workers, prioritizing those who work with infected cows. To help states comply with CDC recommendations, ASPR has PPE in the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) available for states to request if needed.
• FDA’s close coordination with USDA to conduct H5N1 retail milk and dairy sample testing from across the country to ensure the safety of the commercial pasteurized milk supply. NIAID – a part of NIH - is also providing scientific support to this entire effort through six U. S. based Centers for Excellence for Influenza Research and Response, known as CEIRRs.

Today, in light of HHS’ ongoing commitment to ensure the safety of the American people and food supply, HHS announced additional resources to further these efforts through CDC and FDA:

CDC announced it has identified an additional $93 million to support its current response efforts for avian influenza. Building on bipartisan investments in public health, this funding will allow CDC to capitalize on the influenza foundation that has been laid over the last two decades, specifically where CDC has worked domestically and globally to prevent, detect, and respond to avian influenza.

These investments will allow CDC to bolster testing and laboratory capacity, surveillance, genomic sequencing, support jurisdictions and partner efforts to reach high risk populations and initiate a new wastewater surveillance pilot. 

$34 million in Testing and Laboratory Capacity to:

• Develop and optimize assays that can be used to sequence virus independent of virus identification.
• Assess circulating H5N1 viruses for any concerning viral changes, including increased transmissibility or severity in humans or decreasing efficacy of diagnostics or antivirals.
• Support the ability of STLT Public Health Labs throughout the country to surge their testing abilities, including support for the additional costs of shipping human avian influenza specimens, which are select agents.
• Through the International Reagent Resource (IRR), support manufacture, storage, and distribution of roughly one thousand additional influenza diagnostic test kits (equaling nearly around one million additional tests) for virologic surveillance. The IRR would also provide influenza reagents for research and development activities on a global scale. This is in addition to current influenza testing capacity at CDC and in STLT public health and DOD labs, which is approximately 490,000 H5-specific tests.
• Address the manufacturer issue detected with current avian flu test kits.
• Initiate avian flu testing in one commercial laboratory.

$29 million in Epidemiology, Surveillance, and Data Analytics to:

• Scale up existing efforts to monitor people who are exposed to infected birds and poultry to accommodate workers at likely many more poultry facilities, as well as potentially workers at other agricultural facilities and other people (e.g., hunters) who may be exposed to species that pose a threat.
• Scale up contact tracing efforts and data reporting to accommodate monitoring of contacts of additional sporadic cases.
• Support the collection and characterization of additional clinical specimens through established surveillance systems from regions with large numbers of exposed persons to enhance the ability to detect any unrecognized cases in the community if they occur.
• Expand respiratory virus surveillance to capture more samples from persons with acute respiratory illness in different care settings.
• Support continuation and possible expansion of existing respiratory surveillance platforms and vaccine effectiveness platforms.

$14 million in Genomic Sequencing to: 

• Provide bioinformatics and data analytics support for genomic sequencing at CDC that supports surveillance needs for enhanced monitoring.
• Expand sequencing capacity for HPAI in state-level National Influenza Reference Centers (NIRCs), Influenza Sequencing Center (ISC), and Pathogen Genomic Centers of Excellence.

$8 million in Vaccine Activities to:

• Analyze circulating H5N1 viruses to determine whether current Candidate Vaccine Viruses (CVVs) would be effective and develop new ones if necessary.

$5 million in STLT Jurisdiction/Partner Funding to:

• Support partner efforts to reach high risk populations.

$3 million in Wastewater Surveillance to:

• Initiate wastewater pilot to evaluate the use case for HPAI in up to 10 livestock - adjacent sites in partnership with state and local public health agencies and utility partners.
• Implement a study to evaluate the use of Influenza A sequencing in wastewater samples for highly pathogenic avian influenza typing. Initiate laboratory evaluation for HA typing and examine animal-specific markers in community wastewater to assess wildlife and livestock contribution and inform interpretation of wastewater data for action.

Additionally, the FDA is announcing an additional $8 million is being made available to support its ongoing response activities to ensure the safety of the commercial milk supply. This funding will support the agency’s ability to validate pasteurization criteria, conduct surveillance at different points in the milk production system, bolster laboratory capacity and provide needed resources to train staff on biosecurity procedures. Additionally, these funds will help support H5N1 activities in partnership with state co-regulatory partners, who administer state programs as part of the federal/state milk safety system. It may also allow the FDA to partner with universities on critical research questions.

Additional Information:

To learn more about USDA’s response to H5N1 in dairy cattle, visit www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/livestock.

To learn more about CDC’s response to H5N1, visit www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/mammals.htm.

To learn more about FDA’s response to H5N1, visit www.fda.gov/food/alerts-advisories-safety-information/updates-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-hpai

CDC Update (May 10th) On Their Response to HPAI H5

Protect Yourself From H5N1 When 

Working With Farm Animals [2 MB, 1 page]


#18,054 

Yesterday the CDC published their weekly update on their bird flu response - and while diplomatically worded - phrases such as `Continuing to support states' and `Continuing discussions with multiple states about state-led field investigations' suggest the CDC remains largely on the sidelines. 

Most telling, the CDC states their `epidemiological field teams are standing by, ready to deploy to support on-site studies if requested.'

For now, the CDC and USDA appear to remain largely out of the loop, with many states insisting they `manage' the problem.  While I'm sure there are many capable people working at the state level, this is a multi-state outbreak, that really requires a coordinated federal response. 

The CDC is conducting tests on the virus (using ferrets), and will report those results in a few weeks. 

The full CDC update follows:

CDC A(H5N1) Bird Flu Response Update
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May 10, 2024 – CDC continues to respond to the public health challenge posed by a multistate outbreak of avian influenza A(H5N1) virus, or “A(H5N1) virus,” in dairy cows and other animals in the United States. CDC is working in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), state public health and animal health officials, and other partners using a One Health approach. USDA is now reporting that 42 dairy cattle herds in nine U.S. states have confirmed cases of A(H5N1) virus infections in cattle. There have been no additional human cases detected since the one recent case from Texas was reported on April 1, 2024, [1][2] despite the fact that more than 260 people have been monitored as a result of their exposure to infected or potentially infected animals and at least 33 who have developed flu-like symptoms have been tested.

CDC’s response to this outbreak of influenza A(H5N1) virus in dairy cattle and other animals most recently includes:

• Continuing to support states that are monitoring people with exposure to cows, birds, or other domestic or wild animals infected, or potentially infected, with avian influenza A(H5N1) viruses. Testing of symptomatic people who have exposures is being done by state or local officials, and CDC is conducting confirmatory testing when needed.
• Continuing discussions with multiple states about state-led field investigations to explore key scientific and public health questions related to the ongoing outbreak. CDC is playing a coordinating role with regard to investigation protocols so that data collection can be standardized across states and results can be pooled. CDC’s multilingual and multidisciplinary epidemiological field teams are standing by, ready to deploy to support on-site studies if requested.
• Working to make personal protective equipment (PPE) available for affected farmworkers by asking that jurisdictions use their existing stockpiles for workers on dairy farms, poultry farms, and in slaughterhouses, prioritizing distribution of PPE to affected farms. If needed, HHS/ASPR has indicated it can provide PPE from the strategic national stockpile.
• Continuing work to better characterize the virus from the human case in Texas.

• This week, CDC researchers inoculated (infected) ferrets with the virus from the one human infection for its laboratory studies.
• Ferrets are used as a model for people because they get sick and spread influenza viruses in a manner similar to people.
• The goals of these animal studies, include:
• Assessing the severity of illness and transmissibility of the virus under different contact scenarios by infecting ferrets and assessing the outcome, including:
• via direct or close contact, with healthy and infected ferrets in the same space; and
• via respiratory droplets, with healthy and infected ferrets in side-by-side spaces separated by a wall with holes in it.

• Results from the animal studies will be available in approximately three weeks. Experimental infection of cell lines is forthcoming.

• Continuing to engage with manufacturers of commercial diagnostic tests and clinical partners to make progress toward the goal of having an A(H5N1) test that is widely available if needed.
• Continuing the process so that all states can conduct A(H5) testing on eye specimens using CDC’s H5 test. CDC submitted the official request package for this to FDA at the end of last week. Use of eye swabs with the CDC H5 test when the testing is performed by CDC was approved by the CDC Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendment (CLIA) director on April 27th, which means results of testing of eye swabs at CDC can be reported back for patient care. Some state public health laboratories have also taken the step to have eye swabs approved as a sample type for testing under their internal CLIA authorization. Originally, the test was designed for use with respiratory specimens. Once FDA authorizes the use of that specimen type with the test, all states will be able to do the testing themselves.
• Continuing to engage One Health partner organizations from public health, agriculture, wildlife, milk regulatory officials, and others to share information and ensure preparedness to prevent and respond to this emerging infectious disease threat and for any potential human infections.
• Continuing to monitor flu surveillance data, especially in areas where A(H5N1) viruses have been detected in dairy cattle or other animals, for any unusual trends in flu-like illness, flu, or conjunctivitis.

• Overall, for the most recent week of data, CDC flu surveillance systems show no indicators of unusual flu activity in people, including avian influenza A(H5N1) viruses.

CDC Recommendations

CDC has interim recommendations for prevention, monitoring, and public health investigations of A(H5N1) virus infections in people. CDC also has updated recommendations for worker protection and use of personal protective equipment (PPE). Following these recommendations is central to reducing a person’s risk and containing the overall public health risk. Additionally, as a reminder, while CDC believes the current risk of A(H5N1) infection to the general public remains low, high levels of A(H5N1) virus have been found in unpasteurized (“raw”) milk. CDC and FDA recommend against the consumption of raw milk or raw milk products. The risk of human infection from drinking raw milk containing live A(H5N1) virus specifically is unknown. To date, A(H5N1) viruses have not acquired the ability to bind to virus receptors that are most prevalent in the upper respiratory tract of people. If a person consumed raw milk with live A(H5N1) virus, the person could become infected, theoretically, by the virus binding to a limited amount of virus receptors in the upper respiratory tract or by aspiration of virus into the lower respiratory tract where receptors that A(H5N1) viruses can bind to are more widely distributed.

Ongoing Surveillance Needed

Genetic analysis of the human A(H5N1) virus and hundreds of cattle viruses indicate these viruses are still mainly avian in nature and do not currently have the ability to easily infect or spread among people. However, because of the potential for influenza viruses to constantly change, continual surveillance and preparedness efforts are critical, and CDC is taking measures to be ready in case the current risk assessment for the general public changes. The immediate goal is to prevent further spread of this virus between animals and people. CDC will continue to monitor these viruses and update and adjust guidance as needed.

This is a rapidly changing situation, and CDC is committed to providing frequent and timely updates.

Footnotes

[1] The first human case of A(H5N1) bird flu in the United States was reported in 2022 in a person in Colorado who had direct exposure to poultry and was involved in the depopulating of poultry with presumptive A(H5N1) bird flu. The 2022 human case was not related to dairy cattle. The person recovered. Learn more at U.S. Case of Human Avian Influenza A(H5) Virus Reported.

[2] The second human case of A(H5N1) bird flu in the United States was reported in 2024 and linked with dairy cattle and reported eye redness as their only symptom, consistent with conjunctivitis, and has recovered. Learn more at Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A (H5N1) Virus Infection Reported in a Person in the U.S.

NOAA SWPC Issues First G4 (Solar Storm) Watch Since 2005

UPDATED: 12:00 EDT  May 10th

The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) published this update at 11:30 EDT - now citing 7 incoming CMEs.  They have not upgraded the watch, however, which remains at a G4 (Severe) level.  Effects could begin later today.

#18,053

As we approach the peak of the 11-year solar cycle (expected in 2025), the sun has become more active, with an increased number of sunspots and more eruptive activity (flares and CMEs). 

While we are shielded from much of the impact of space weather by our atmosphere and the earth's magnetic field, extremely large solar flares and CMEs (Coronal Mass Ejections) can be damaging. 

Over the past 3 days the sun has launched at least 5 (and now possibly 6) earth-directed CMEs, which should arrive over the weekend.   Individually, none of these are strong enough to have a serious impact - but combined - they may pack a more powerful punch. 

Last night, NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center issued the following watch. Over the past few hours the sun has produce another X4 flare, although it is too soon to know if it has produced an earth-directed CME.

SWPC ISSUES ITS FIRST G4 WATCH SINCE 2005

published: Thursday, May 09, 2024 20:38 UTC

On Thursday, May 9, 2024, the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center issued a Severe (G4) Geomagnetic Storm Watch. At least five earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed and expected to arrive as early as midday Friday, May 10, 2024, and persist through Sunday, May 12, 2024. Several strong flares have been observed over the past few days and were associated with a large and magnetically complex sunspot cluster (NOAA region 3664), which is 16 times the diameter of Earth.

NOAA will hold a special teleconference this morning at 10am EDT (details here) to discuss this space weather event and explain the Geomagnetic Storm Watch.  As of now, a `Severe' level 4 storm is predicted, which is the second highest category and may impact:

Power systems: Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems will mistakenly trip out key assets from the grid.

Spacecraft operations: May experience surface charging and tracking problems, corrections may be needed for orientation problems.

Other systems: Induced pipeline currents affect preventive measures, HF radio propagation sporadic, satellite navigation degraded for hours, low-frequency radio navigation disrupted, and aurora has been seen as low as Alabama and northern California (typically 45° geomagnetic lat.).

The full scale is shown below.

Although typically we would expect some sporadic power outages, and communications glitches, from this level of storm, precise predictions are impossible, and the actual impacts could be stronger or weaker than expected. 

The fact that 4, 5, or perhaps even 6 CMEs may hit over a period of 24-48 hours further complicates the forecast.  And it is also possible that additional CMEs will erupt in the hours ahead. 

Predictably YouTube is already brimming with `clickbaity' videos predicting a `killshot' or `Carrington-level Event' this weekend. My advice is to closely follow NOAA's SWPC, and for some valuable context, visit Dr. Tony Phillips' excellent Spaceweather.com.  

As we've discussed over the years, another `Carrington-level' event - one that could take down much of the world's electrical infrastructure - is always possible. Some would even say inevitable.  In 2012, the earth got enormously lucky (see NASA: The Solar Super Storm Of 2012).

 You can view a 4-minute video on our `near-hit' here.

Extreme solar events were once thought to occur only once every few hundred years, but scientists now believe that these severe solar storms happen far more often (See Destructive Solar Storms Usually Hit Earth Every 25 Years or So, Say Scientists).

FEMA takes these threats seriously, and last year offered a free online training course - for emergency managers and the general public - on preparing the nation for space weather events.

FEMA RELEASES SPACE WEATHER TRAINING

published: Monday, April 24, 2023 17:24 UTC

FEMA has developed a training module that introduces both space weather and space weather impacts. It also provides excellent background on the US Government's plan for an extreme space weather storm. This course covers the lessons necessary for a greater understanding of space weather and its impacts, strengthens understanding of space weather events; the potential impacts from those events; and the roles of the Federal Government as well as the local and jurisdictional Emergency Manager in preparing for and mitigating

While I'm not expecting huge disruptions this weekend, we could see some sporadic - and perhaps even regional - power interruptions.  Network outages, and an increased number electrical fires may occur.  Some satellites may take damage, and GPS may be affected. 

This is likely the first of many salvos we'll take over the next 12-24 months from the sun, and while most will produce only minor impacts, a severe and damaging storm is always possible. 

In 2017, in USGS: Preparing The Nation For Severe Space Weather, we looked at an analysis that suggests Extreme space weather-induced electricity blackouts could cost U.S. more than $40 billion daily, potentially trillions over a year.

While it's probably impossible to prepare for the absolute worst-case scenario, the good news is that is very unlikely to happen. Far more likely are regional power or communication outages, possibly lasting a few days or even a couple of weeks. 

Whether due to an earthquake, a hurricane, or even a solar storm - a certain amount of preparedness just makes good sense. 

So . . . if a disaster struck your region today, and the power went out, stores closed their doors, and water stopped flowing from your kitchen tap for the next 7 to 14 days . . . do you already have:

• A battery operated NWS Emergency Radio to find out what was going on, and to get vital instructions from emergency officials
• A decent first-aid kit, so that you can treat injuries
• Enough non-perishable food and water on hand to feed and hydrate your family (including pets) for the duration
• A way to provide light when the grid is down.
• A way to cook safely without electricity
• A way to purify or filter water
• A way to stay cool (fans) or warm when the power is out.
• A small supply of cash to use in case credit/debit machines are not working
• An emergency plan, including meeting places, emergency out-of-state contact numbers, a disaster buddy, and in case you must evacuate, a bug-out bag
• Spare supply of essential prescription medicines that you or your family may need
• A way to entertain yourself, or your kids, during a prolonged blackout

If your answer is `no’, you have some work to do. 

A good place to get started is by visiting Ready.gov, which has their own page devoted to preparing for severe space weather.